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Structured Analytic Techniques in Argument-Driven Inquiry for Cybersecurity

Structured Analytic Techniques (SATs) are a set of methods used to enhance decision-making and problem-solving in various industries. In the field of cybersecurity, SATs can be used in conjunction with the steps of argument-driven inquiry (ADI) to improve the quality of cybersecurity risk assessments and threat intelligence analysis.

One of the benefits of using SATs is that they provide a structured framework for collecting, analyzing, and synthesizing data. This can help cybersecurity professionals to identify and assess potential threats more effectively, and to develop more accurate predictions about future threat scenarios.

For example, the Key Assumptions Check is a SAT that can be used to identify the underlying assumptions that inform a cybersecurity hypothesis. By examining these assumptions, cybersecurity professionals can gain a deeper understanding of the risks and vulnerabilities that may be present in their systems.

Another benefit of using SATs in cybersecurity is that they can help to overcome cognitive biases and other factors that can affect decision-making. For example, the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) SAT can be used to compare multiple hypotheses about a cybersecurity threat or vulnerability. By examining the strengths and weaknesses of each hypothesis, cybersecurity professionals can make more informed decisions about the most likely scenario.


Here are some examples of structured analytic techniques (SATs) that can be used during each step of argument-driven inquiry (ADI) in the context of cybersecurity:

  1. Identify a problem:
    1. Focused brainstorming
    2. Mind mapping
    3. Issues hierarchy
  2. Develop a question:
    1. Consequence scanning
    2. Challenge analysis
    3. Question formulation technique
  3. Develop a hypothesis:
    1. Key assumptions check
    2. Indicators and warning analysis
    3. Multiple hypothesis generation
  4. Collect data:
    1. Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH)
    2. All-Source Intelligence Fusion
    3. Event charts
  5. Analyze the data:
    1. Link analysis
    2. Decision trees
    3. Structured brainstorming
  6. Refine the hypothesis:
    1. Alternative futures analysis
    2. Red teaming
    3. Premortem analysis
  7. Draw conclusions:
    1. Criteria ranking method
    2. Evaluation matrix
    3. Matrix of opposing arguments
Structured Analytic Techniques (SATs) are cognitive tools used to enhance critical thinking and decision-making in cybersecurity. They can help cybersecurity professionals by providing a systematic approach to identifying problems, developing questions, hypotheses, collecting and analyzing data, refining hypotheses, and drawing conclusions.

For example, in the first step of argument-driven inquiry, identifying a problem, SATs like focused brainstorming, mind mapping, and issues hierarchy can help to identify problems in a structured and systematic manner.

Similarly, in the step of developing a question, techniques such as consequence scanning, challenge analysis, and question formulation technique can help to develop focused, specific, and answerable questions based on available data.

In the step of developing a hypothesis, techniques such as key assumptions check, indicators and warning analysis, and multiple hypothesis generation can help to develop testable hypotheses that are based on available evidence.

During the data collection step, techniques such as Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH), All-Source Intelligence Fusion, and Event charts can help to collect data from multiple sources, including internal and external data sources, to support or refute the hypothesis.

During the data analysis step, techniques such as link analysis, decision trees, and structured brainstorming can help to analyze data to determine whether the hypothesis is supported or refuted.

In the step of refining the hypothesis, techniques such as alternative futures analysis, red teaming, and premortem analysis can help to identify weaknesses in the hypothesis and develop new strategies to mitigate the threat.

Finally, in the step of drawing conclusions, techniques such as criteria ranking method, evaluation matrix, and matrix of opposing arguments can help to draw conclusions based on the results of the data analysis and develop recommendations for cybersecurity strategy and tactics.

Overall, SATs provide a structured and systematic approach to critical thinking and decision-making in cybersecurity, helping cybersecurity professionals to identify problems, develop questions, hypotheses, collect and analyze data, refine hypotheses, and draw conclusions.

By combining SATs with the steps of ADI, cybersecurity professionals can improve the quality and reliability of their risk assessments, threat intelligence analyses, and decision-making processes. This can help to reduce the likelihood of successful cyberattacks and minimize the impact of those that do occur.

In conclusion, the use of SATs in cybersecurity can provide numerous benefits, including more accurate risk assessments, better threat intelligence analysis, and improved decision-making processes. By using SATs in conjunction with the steps of ADI, cybersecurity professionals can develop more effective cybersecurity strategies and tactics, and better protect their organizations from cyber threats.

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Location: Las Vegas, NV, USA

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